Market & Fund Commentaries
| Every quarter, Sceptre investment management teams report on relevant markets, the activities within each mutual fund portfolio, and the outlook for the future. Expand the following list to view the commentary in which you are interested. Further in-depth fund information can also be viewed in the Mutual Fund area of the website. |
Second Quarter 2010
Sceptre Bond Fund
During the second quarter of 2010, the DEX Universe bond index returned 2.9%. The Fund’s underperformance of 60 basis points relative to the index for the second quarter is due entirely to an overweight position in corporate bonds. The duration of the portfolio was maintained fairly close to the index, except for two occasions, where the fund manager employed a tactical rates strategy to capitalize on a temporary rise in short term bond yields. This was affected by selling short-dated bonds and buying very short-dated bonds and floating rate notes. However, portfolio duration was returned close to the index by quarter end, with the outcome proving beneficial to performance.
Strong demand for yield and concern about the global economy during the second quarter of 2010 resulted in broad strength throughout the bond market. Corporate bonds underperformed the broader bond market as corporate credit yield spreads widened with weakness in equity markets, but this was partly mitigated by term structure and security selection.
Economic growth and inflation are in line with Bank of Canada forecasts reducing the need for rates at emergency levels. Despite the 25 basis points rate hike in June, the bond market has reduced expectations for an extensive hiking campaign, as the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike until 2011 and global macroeconomic recovery remains tentative. While long-term federal government bonds provided the best sub-sector return of 6.8%, the weakest sub-sector, short-term corporate bonds, managed to provide a positive return of 1.5%.
Currently, lower Government of Canada bond yields appear less compelling relative to our expectations for further Bank of Canada rate hikes over the next 12 months. Although our overweight position in corporate bonds negatively impacted performance in the second quarter of 2010 we have maintained this overweight in order to generate higher portfolio yield than the index.
Sceptre High Income Fund
Sceptre Income & Growth Fund
The global economic recovery started to falter in the second quarter of 2010 as many nations began to move away from massive stimulation of their economies and toward the implementation of austerity measures designed to reduce annual deficits and rising total indebtedness. Many investors, having become increasingly concerned about the future outlook for both the economy and financial markets, adopted a more risk-averse approach within their portfolios, turning to the safest assets and away from any security that might suffer in a second economic correction. In this environment, bonds outperformed equities and Government bonds outperformed corporate securities. The DEX Bond Index returned 2.9% while the Canadian equity market declined 5.5% and global equities were off 8.3%.
For the second quarter, the Fund returned -4.4% after fees. Both bond and equities underperformed their respective indices as corporate bonds, an area of the market that we are overweight, underperformed Government of Canada bonds. Equities were also weaker than the overall market as many economically-sensitive securities, particularly within the Financial and Resource sectors suffered major declines. In the case of Research in Motion (-30.5%), the company was hurt by Apple Computer’s new product introductions while Shoppers Drug Mart (-24.1%) was negatively impacted by proposed new government pricing criteria for generic drugs.
The structure of the portfolio changed modestly in the quarter as we deployed most of the Fund’s cash into Government of Canada bonds while at the same time reducing our exposure to provincial bonds. We remain overweight high quality corporate bonds which provide us with a higher yield than the overall market. The current asset mix of the Fund is 0.5% short-term investments, 38.0% bonds and 61.6% equities.
Within the equity component, new purchases included Saputo Inc, a Canadian dairy and cheese operation that has an excellent growth record, Methanex, which is benefiting from China’s increased appetite for methanol and Vermillion Energy Trust, a highly successful Canadian international energy producer. We also eliminated or reduced a number of resource-oriented holdings.
In the current weaker economic environment, the risk of a second downturn is more pronounced. Consequently, we are taking a cautious approach to our investing.
Sceptre Equity Growth Fund
Sceptre Canadian Equity Fund
Equity markets around the world had a difficult quarter, brought on by the European sovereign debt crisis. As well, China’s economic growth expectations were somewhat reduced, impacting commodity prices. In this uncertain environment, global investors flocked to the safe haven of gold bullion. The S&P/TSX Composite Index declined 5.5% in the second quarter, with defensive sectors such as Telecommunications, Consumer and Health Care outperforming more cyclical sectors such as Energy and Financial Services. Gold stocks in particular, did very well in the quarter. Like most diversified funds, the Fund was underexposed to this top performing sub-sector. Over the same period, the Fund declined 6.1%. On a longer term basis, the Fund has outperformed the Index on a 10 year basis.
Not surprisingly, the two stocks that had the most positive impact on performance in the quarter were gold stocks: Goldcorp (+23%) and Franco-Nevada (+20%). Other winners included Pacific Rubiales (+21%) and Silver Wheaton (+34%). Our overweight in railroads also contributed to relative outperformance. Detractors in the quarter, aside from our gold underweight, included Materials stocks Potash Corp (-24%) and Teck (-29%) as fears of a slower economy overwhelmed their improving fundamentals. Our overweight in Financials – a positive in the first quarter – hurt us in the second quarter. Manulife (-22%) and Power Corp (-16%) fell as interest rate expectations were adjusted downward. Lastly, Royal Bank (-14%) reported a quarter that was below expectations and thus underperformed.
During the quarter, we made select changes to the portfolio. In the Consumer sector we initiated a position in Saputo Inc., one of the leading cheese producers in North America. Saputo trades at a reasonable valuation and has an excellent track record of growth and high returns. We also initiated a position in Tim Horton’s this quarter. To fund these purchases we eliminated our holding in Canadian Tire. In the Materials sector, we increased our precious metals weight by adding to growth names Agnico-Eagle and Silver Wheaton, while selling out small positions in Kinross and Inmet. In the Energy sector, we trimmed Canadian Oil Sands Trust and purchased Vermilion Energy Trust. Vermilion is a diversified global energy company with assets in Western Europe, Australia and Canada. It has an excellent management team, conservative capital structure and a handsome yield. We continue to seek quality investments that have long term growth and trade at reasonable valuations.
Sceptre Global Equity Fund
